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Fitch places Cameroon on Negative Rating (06.07.2004)
By Helmo Preuss
Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, on Monday placed the Republic of Cameroon`s long-term foreign and local currency `B` ratings on Rating Watch Negative.
The move reflected Fitch`s view that a series of negative developments have placed public finances under strain and have threatened to undermine the government`s credit standing.
Poor budgetary management is expected to result in problems achieving the 2004 primary budget surplus target, which forms an important condition of Cameroon`s funding programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This deterioration in public finances is all the more worrying given that international oil prices are high (Cameroon is an oil exporter) and the real economy is performing well, although it could in part be explained by the presidential elections scheduled for October 2004.
The wider budget deficit is complicating the authorities` public financing plans, and as a result the government is accumulating fresh domestic arrears.
Non-payment of obligations to state companies and entities has also been reported, and the resulting reduction in their dividend payments to the central government is placing further pressure on public finances.
Another sign of financial distress are reported delays in payments on some domestic debt obligations.
Roughly one-half of a domestic debt stock equivalent to some 13% GDP is made up of bonds that were issued to clear previous arrears (to domestic suppliers, banks, and salaries) and are traded locally.
The government is meeting some of these obligations (the social security institute, for example), but reportedly there are a number of bondholders who have not received payment for several months.
It is increasingly uncertain as to whether the government will meet a sizeable redemption of these bonds due later this month. The government is
however meeting its external debt obligations.
Poor fiscal performance means that the government has been unable to complete the fifth review under its three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) programme with the IMF.
The programme is due to expire at end-2004 and it is unclear, against the backdrop of the presidential elections, whether an agreement on the outstanding issues will be reached before the expiry.
The mixed reform record and outstanding problems with the IMF could complicate Cameroon`s goal of reaching completion point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative, originally expected for this year.
Cameroon currently benefits from interim HIPC debt relief that diverts a portion of external debt service into social spending programmes, but it has not yet been granted debt stock relief.
Cameroon did conclude an agreement with London Club creditors in 2003 whereby approximately 85% of the face-value of outstanding claims was written-off, and the remainder was repaid with a World Bank loan.
However, HIPC debt stock relief could further cut the nominal stock of government external debt, by as much as one-third.
Supplementary debt relief from the French Development Agency is also likely to be delayed beyond 2004 as this too is linked with HIPC completion.
For the sovereign ratings to stabilise, the authorities would need to address the budgetary problems at the earliest possible juncture, normalise relations with holders of domestic debt and reverse the accumulation of other domestic arrears.
Stronger implementation of structural reforms and restoring programme relations with the IMF are also important, not least as this could have a bearing on the timing of HIPC completion.
By contrast, further fiscal slippage and fresh payment arrears would put additional downward pressure on the sovereign ratings.
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